Orange County already has a lower crime rate than the state overall, Tita noted, and putting in affordable housing appears to either reduce violent crimes such as robbery and aggravated assault or have no impact. Generally the price per square foot actually went up, just as it did in poorer neighborhoods. In higher-income communities, the nearest homes sometimes saw their overall value decrease slightly after the addition of affordable housing, but the study said those tended to be larger homes. In lower-income communities, homes closest to an affordable site typically increased in value after the new housing was built, according to the study. Using 20 years of sales data for homes within two miles of an affordable development (and adjusting to account for the 2008 recession and more recent home price explosion), researchers looked at what happened to values before and after an affordable development opened. (File photo by Mindy Schauer, Orange County Register/SCNG)Įconomic and demographic data show much of the county’s affordable housing is in communities that are less White and have lower median incomes and home values, Tita said. Residents start to move into Sage Park, Irvine’s new affordable housing complex in January 2022. While Irvine has the most affordable homes of any OC city, the study shows affordable developments are scattered around the county – but more heavily concentrated in the northern cities.
It focused on a list of 371 developments around the county that are designated as “affordable,” which usually means tenants have to meet income guidelines or other criteria, and their rent is restricted or subsidized. The study was funded by several affordable housing developers, two nonprofits, the Orange County Housing Authority and the cities of Anaheim and Garden Grove. Tita said people are less likely to be persuaded by data from a different community in another state, and he hopes local policy makers can use the UCI study “to influence some skeptics on the issue.” No negative impacts
Now the issue has been looked at by a number of researchers (Tita said they’ve largely drawn conclusions that match his findings), but the UCI study is the first to specifically look at Orange County. They stem from “fear of change and fear of newcomers,” Dunn said, but in the early 2000s there weren’t any studies to help put those fears to rest. She said she’s been hearing arguments about home values and crime since she headed the state Housing and Community Development Department under Gov. Whatever is at the root of the findings, they’re not a surprise to Lucy Dunn, the former head of the Orange County Business Council. There could be several factors driving those results: high standards in regulations require affordable developments to look as nice or nicer than other housing in the community, and, as Tita pointed out, a quality new build is an investment in the neighborhood that might be replacing a disused lot or a run-down motel that saw frequent police calls. Researchers are still analyzing the data, but those are the top-line conclusions. And, in many cases, he said, “there is a positive impact on the price of homes sold and the average price per square foot of homes sold in the three years after affordable housing is placed” in a neighborhood.
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